West Bengal has emerged as the most fiercely contested state in this election cycle, with exit polls offering sharply divided projections on whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has finally managed to breach Ms Mamata Banerjee’s political fortress.
Four of six pollsters have given the BJP an edge in the 294-member Assembly, where 148 seats are needed for a majority.
Praja Poll has projected the strongest BJP performance, giving it 178 to 208 seats and reducing Ms Mamata’s Trinamool Congress to 85 to 110. P-Marq has placed the BJP at 150 to 175 seats, while Matrize and Poll Diary have also projected the party around or above the majority mark.
If these numbers hold, it would mark a dramatic rise for the BJP, which had just three seats in 2016 and rose to 77 in 2021. Such a result would represent one of the sharpest political expansions in recent Indian electoral history.
But the picture is far from settled. Janmat Polls has predicted a comfortable return for the Trinamool, giving it 195 to 205 seats, while Peoples Pulse has projected 177 to 187 seats for Chief Minister Mamata’s party.
Both suggest that welfare schemes, Bengali identity politics and the TMC’s organisational machinery may have helped it withstand the BJP’s aggressive campaign.
The Left-Congress alliance appears to be the clear loser across most projections, with several pollsters predicting that it may again struggle to open its account.
The election was held amid high voter turnout and intense controversy over the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls, which led to the deletion of more than nine million names. The TMC has alleged that the exercise hurt its support base, while the BJP has argued that it helped clean up the rolls.
Axis My India, one of the closely watched pollsters, has delayed its Bengal projection, saying many voters were unwilling to reveal their choice during field surveys.
Beyond Bengal, the exit polls suggest continuity or clear trends in other states. In Assam, a poll of exit polls gives the BJP-led alliance a strong advantage with around 93 of 126 seats, while the Congress-led bloc is projected at about 26.
In Kerala, the Congress-led United Democratic Front is projected to return to power with around 78 seats in the 140-member Assembly, ahead of the ruling Left Democratic Front, which is placed at 58.
In Puducherry, the N.R. Congress-led alliance is projected to retain power with around 17 of 30 seats, while the Congress-led alliance may get nine. Actor Vijay’s TVK could make a small but notable entry with two seats.
Exit polls have often gone wrong, especially in close contests. But one thing is clear: Bengal remains the biggest prize – and the result on counting day could reshape national politics.
